Polideportivo Almería 0–2 Mijas Las Lagunas

Polideportivo Almería

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mijas Las Lagunas

Álvaro Sánchez 90+3'

Antonio Caballero 49'

1/26/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 19Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Polideportivo Almería33%

×Draw27%

Mijas Las Lagunas39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchMijas Las Lagunas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.28

Polideportivo Almería

1.16

Mijas Las Lagunas

1.28

Mijas Las Lagunas creates 10% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 34 away

1.26

creates per match

1.29

1.27

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Mijas Las Lagunas

1.29

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Mijas Las Lagunas

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Mijas Las Lagunas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Mijas Las Lagunas →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

61%

Polideportivo Almería or Mijas Las Lagunas

73%

Draw or Mijas Las Lagunas

67%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

14%

Mijas Las Lagunas wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

69%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

32%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

11%

Mijas Las Lagunas 1+ goals

72%

Mijas Las Lagunas 2+ goals

37%

Mijas Las Lagunas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

46%

Mijas Las Lagunas (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Mijas Las Lagunas away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Mijas Las Lagunas defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Mijas Las Lagunas attack 1.29 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

33%

level

27%

Mijas Las Lagunas scores more

39%

Mijas Las Lagunas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mijas Las Lagunas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Sergio Esteban← Ricardo

49'

Antonio Caballero

57'

H. El Ouakili← Diego Felices

71'

Ale Benítez← Jonathan Linares

76'

Álvaro Sánchez← Borja Jiménez

76'

Gabriel Martin← Ito

78'

Dani Ibarra← Linares

78'

Guille Espínola← Juanjo López

82'

Marcal Metcho← Campanas

82'

Fran Requena← Pablo Checa

87'

O. El Fquih← Boateng

90+3'

Álvaro Sánchez

Polideportivo

Mijas

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Amando Alarcón

57'▲H. El Ouakili←▼Diego Felices

78'▲Dani Ibarra←▼Linares

78'▲Guille Espínola←▼Juanjo López

82'▲Marcal Metcho←▼Campanas

82'▲Fran Requena←▼Pablo Checa

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

OuakiliIbarraEspínolaMetchoRequena

Manager: José Fiera

46'▲Sergio Esteban←▼Ricardo

71'▲Ale Benítez←▼Jonathan Linares

76'▲Álvaro Sánchez←▼Borja Jiménez

76'▲Gabriel Martin←▼Ito

87'▲O. El Fquih←▼Boateng

Mijas Las Lagunas substitutes

EstebanBenítezSánchezMartinFquih

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Polideportivo Almería 0–2 Mijas Las Lagunas

Mijas Las Lagunas beat Polideportivo Almería 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 26, 2025.

Goals: Antonio Caballero (49'), Álvaro Sánchez (90+3').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles in Almería.

Polideportivo Almería vs Mijas Las Lagunas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Polideportivo Almería 0–2 Mijas Las Lagunas