Mijas Las Lagunas 1–0 Polideportivo Almería

Mijas Las Lagunas

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Polideportivo Almería

Antonio Caballero 46'

9/15/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2Ciudad Deportiva Las Lagunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mijas Las Lagunas61%

×Draw23%

Polideportivo Almería16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mijas Las LagunasExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.76

Mijas Las Lagunas

1.74

Polideportivo Almería

0.76

Mijas Las Lagunas creates 129% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 63 away

1.62

creates per match

0.84

0.68

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Mijas Las Lagunas

1.62

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Mijas Las Lagunas

0.68

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mijas Las Lagunas+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mijas Las Lagunas ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mijas Las Lagunas or draw

84%

Mijas Las Lagunas or Polideportivo Almería

77%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

39%

Winning margin

Mijas Las Lagunas wins by 2+

35%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Team goals

Mijas Las Lagunas 1+ goals

82%

Mijas Las Lagunas 2+ goals

52%

Mijas Las Lagunas 3+ goals

25%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

53%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

18%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mijas Las Lagunas (draw refunded)

79%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mijas Las Lagunas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mijas Las Lagunas attack 1.62 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.74

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Mijas Las Lagunas defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mijas Las Lagunas scores more

61%

level

23%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

16%

Mijas Las Lagunas at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Mijas Las Lagunas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Antonio Caballero

53'

S. Esteban

55'

A. Awana← Félix

55'

Guille Espínola← Diego Felices

59'

Ángel Blanco← Ito

69'

Dani Mesas← Campanas

69'

Naím← Samu

76'

Ramón← Daniel Lidueña

76'

Antoñito← Pablo Checa

89'

Fabri← Joselito

89'

Ricardo← Antonio Caballero

Mijas

Polideportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: José Fiera

55'▲A. Awana←▼Félix

59'▲Ángel Blanco←▼Ito

89'▲Fabri←▼Joselito

89'▲Ricardo←▼Antonio Caballero

Mijas Las Lagunas substitutes

AwanaBlancoFabriRicardo

Manager: David Cartagena

55'▲Guille Espínola←▼Diego Felices

69'▲Dani Mesas←▼Campanas

69'▲Naím←▼Samu

76'▲Ramón←▼Daniel Lidueña

76'▲Antoñito←▼Pablo Checa

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

EspínolaMesasNaímRamónAntoñito

Match Recap: Mijas Las Lagunas vs Polideportivo Almería

Mijas Las Lagunas beat Polideportivo Almería 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 15, 2024.

Goals: Antonio Caballero (46').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Las Lagunas in Las Lagunas de Mijas.

Mijas Las Lagunas vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mijas Las Lagunas vs Polideportivo Almería