Polideportivo Almería 1–2 Martos: Result & Stats

Polideportivo Almería

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Martos

Campanas 46'

Adrián Ruiz 59'

Hugo Hachi 19'

2/16/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 22Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Polideportivo Almería48%

×Draw25%

Martos27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchMartos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.10

Polideportivo Almería

1.56

Martos

1.10

Polideportivo Almería creates 42% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 34 away

1.26

creates per match

0.94

1.27

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Martos

0.94

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Martos

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Martos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Martos →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

73%

Polideportivo Almería or Martos

75%

Draw or Martos

52%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

25%

Martos wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

79%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

46%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

21%

Martos 1+ goals

67%

Martos 2+ goals

30%

Martos 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

64%

Martos (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Martos away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Martos defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.56

Martos attack 0.94 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

48%

level

25%

Martos scores more

27%

Polideportivo Almería at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Hugo Hachi

46'

Guille Espínola← Juanjo López

46'

I. Touré← Pablo Checa

46'

Campanas

59'

Adrián Ruiz

68'

Pablo Maldonado← Antonio Pino

68'

David Jiménez← Hugo Hachi

72'

Linares← Álex Cazorla

72'

Peke← Fran Requena

80'

Óscar Vega← Josema

84'

A. Fofana← Rubén Jurado

84'

Pipo← Chanes

86'

Álex Medina← Álvaro Alcázar

Polideportivo

Martos

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Amando Alarcón

46'▲Guille Espínola←▼Juanjo López

46'▲I. Touré←▼Pablo Checa

72'▲Linares←▼Álex Cazorla

72'▲Peke←▼Fran Requena

80'▲Óscar Vega←▼Josema

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

EspínolaTouréLinaresPekeVega

Manager: Valenciano

68'▲Pablo Maldonado←▼Antonio Pino

68'▲David Jiménez←▼Hugo Hachi

84'▲A. Fofana←▼Rubén Jurado

84'▲Pipo←▼Chanes

86'▲Álex Medina←▼Álvaro Alcázar

Martos substitutes

MaldonadoJiménezFofanaPipoMedina