Martos 2–1 Polideportivo Almería: Result & Stats

Martos

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Polideportivo Almería

Ramón Ruiz 71'

Antonio Pino 43'

Daniel Lidueña 4'

10/6/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 5Estadio Chamorro Martinez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Martos49%

×Draw28%

Polideportivo Almería22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MartosExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.80

Martos

1.34

Polideportivo Almería

0.80

Martos creates 68% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 63 away

0.82

creates per match

0.84

0.76

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Martos

0.82

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Martos

0.76

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Martos+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martos ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Martos or draw

78%

Martos or Polideportivo Almería

72%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

51%

Winning margin

Martos wins by 2+

24%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Team goals

Martos 1+ goals

74%

Martos 2+ goals

39%

Martos 3+ goals

15%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

55%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

19%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Martos (draw refunded)

69%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Martos at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.76 · 34 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Martos attack 0.82 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.34

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Martos defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Martos scores more

49%

level

28%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

22%

Martos at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Martos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Daniel Lidueña

29'

Ramón Ruiz← Pepelu Cerrato

38'

Carrillo← David Jiménez

43'

Antonio Pino

46'

Ramón← J. Randal

56'

Jeró López← Álvaro Alcázar

56'

Mena← Miguel Castillo

63'

Marcal Metcho← Pablo Checa

63'

Dani Mesas← Campanas

70'

Córdoba← Josema

71'

Ramón Ruiz

79'

Juanjo López← Pablo Abarca

Martos

Polideportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Valenciano

29'▲Ramón Ruiz←▼Pepelu Cerrato

38'▲Carrillo←▼David Jiménez

56'▲Jeró López←▼Álvaro Alcázar

56'▲Mena←▼Miguel Castillo

Martos substitutes

RuizCarrilloLópezMena

Manager: David Cartagena

46'▲Ramón←▼J. Randal

63'▲Marcal Metcho←▼Pablo Checa

63'▲Dani Mesas←▼Campanas

70'▲Córdoba←▼Josema

79'▲Juanjo López←▼Pablo Abarca

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

RamónMetchoMesasCórdobaLópez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Martos 2–1 Polideportivo Almería

Martos beat Polideportivo Almería 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 6, 2024.

Goals: Daniel Lidueña (4'), Antonio Pino (43'), Ramón Ruiz (71').

The match was played at Estadio Chamorro Martinez in Martos.

Martos vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Martos 2–1 Polideportivo Almería