Polideportivo Almería 2–2 Marbelli: Result & Stats

Polideportivo Almería

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Marbelli

Josema 71'

Linares 35' (pen)

Adil Azarkan 60'

Joselinho 25'

5/1/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 32Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Polideportivo Almería39%

×Draw29%

Marbelli32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchMarbelli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.06

Polideportivo Almería

1.19

Marbelli

1.06

Polideportivo Almería creates 12% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 34 away

1.26

creates per match

0.85

1.27

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Marbelli

0.85

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Marbelli

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Marbelli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Marbelli →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

68%

Polideportivo Almería or Marbelli

71%

Draw or Marbelli

61%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

17%

Marbelli wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

70%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

33%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

12%

Marbelli 1+ goals

65%

Marbelli 2+ goals

29%

Marbelli 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

55%

Marbelli (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Marbelli away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Marbelli defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Marbelli attack 0.85 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

39%

level

29%

Marbelli scores more

32%

Polideportivo Almería at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Joselinho

35'

LinaresPenalty

57'

Guille Espínola← I. Touré

59'

Óscar Escobar← M. Mbaye

60'

Adil Azarkan

68'

Jorge Cortés← Joselinho

68'

C. Essomba← Kepa Vieites

71'

Josema

72'

Álex Cazorla← Peke

80'

Charles Trujillo← Miguel Rubio

80'

Josué Castro← Víctor Vázquez

88'

Jorge Gómez← Dani Ibarra

88'

Moussa← Pablo Checa

88'

Óscar Vega← H. El Ouakili

Polideportivo

Marbelli

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▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Amando Alarcón

57'▲Guille Espínola←▼I. Touré

72'▲Álex Cazorla←▼Peke

88'▲Jorge Gómez←▼Dani Ibarra

88'▲Moussa←▼Pablo Checa

88'▲Óscar Vega←▼H. El Ouakili

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

EspínolaCazorlaGómezMoussaVega

Manager: Álex Álvarez

59'▲Óscar Escobar←▼M. Mbaye

68'▲Jorge Cortés←▼Joselinho

68'▲C. Essomba←▼Kepa Vieites

80'▲Charles Trujillo←▼Miguel Rubio

80'▲Josué Castro←▼Víctor Vázquez

Marbelli substitutes

EscobarCortésEssombaTrujilloCastro