Marbelli 0–3 Polideportivo Almería: Result & Stats

Marbelli

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Polideportivo Almería

Juanjo López 73'

Daniel Lidueña 54'

Campanas 42'

12/15/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 15Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Marbelli51%

×Draw26%

Polideportivo Almería22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarbelliExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.89

Marbelli

1.50

Polideportivo Almería

0.89

Marbelli creates 69% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 63 away

1.15

creates per match

0.84

0.94

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Marbelli

1.15

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Marbelli

0.94

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marbelli+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marbelli ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Marbelli or draw

78%

Marbelli or Polideportivo Almería

74%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

49%

Winning margin

Marbelli wins by 2+

26%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Team goals

Marbelli 1+ goals

78%

Marbelli 2+ goals

44%

Marbelli 3+ goals

19%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

59%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

22%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Marbelli (draw refunded)

70%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Marbelli at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Marbelli attack 1.15 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Marbelli defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Marbelli scores more

51%

level

26%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

22%

Marbelli at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Marbelli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Javi Ocaña← Carlos Pomares

42'

Campanas

46'

Alberto Montaño← Leo Dos Reis

46'

Adrián Cabrera← Lucas

54'

Daniel Lidueña

55'

Antoñito← Othman Ouhadi

57'

Álvarito← Óscar Escobar

70'

Juanjo López← Pablo Checa

70'

Guille Espínola← Campanas

73'

Juanjo López

77'

Córdoba← J. Randal

77'

H. El Ouakili← Pablo Abarca

82'

Miguel Rubio← Adil Azarkan

Marbelli

Polideportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Juan Carlos Puertas

41'▲Javi Ocaña←▼Carlos Pomares

46'▲Alberto Montaño←▼Leo Dos Reis

46'▲Adrián Cabrera←▼Lucas

57'▲Álvarito←▼Óscar Escobar

82'▲Miguel Rubio←▼Adil Azarkan

Marbelli substitutes

OcañaMontañoCabreraÁlvaritoRubio

Manager: Amando Alarcón

55'▲Antoñito←▼Othman Ouhadi

70'▲Juanjo López←▼Pablo Checa

70'▲Guille Espínola←▼Campanas

77'▲Córdoba←▼J. Randal

77'▲H. El Ouakili←▼Pablo Abarca

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

AntoñitoLópezEspínolaCórdobaOuakili

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Marbelli 0–3 Polideportivo Almería

Polideportivo Almería beat Marbelli 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 15, 2024.

Goals: Campanas (42'), Daniel Lidueña (54'), Juanjo López (73').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in San Pedro de Alcántara.

Marbelli vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Marbelli 0–3 Polideportivo Almería