Polideportivo Almería 3–1 Maracena: Result & Stats

Polideportivo Almería

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Maracena

Fernando Carralero 90+6'

Campanas 90'

Álvaro Cruz 22'

Julen Gonzalez 75'

3/3/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 24Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Polideportivo Almería46%

×Draw26%

Maracena27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchMaracena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.06

Polideportivo Almería

1.46

Maracena

1.06

Polideportivo Almería creates 38% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 61 away

1.26

creates per match

0.85

1.27

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Maracena

0.85

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Maracena

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Maracena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Maracena →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

73%

Polideportivo Almería or Maracena

74%

Draw or Maracena

54%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

23%

Maracena wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

77%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

43%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

18%

Maracena 1+ goals

65%

Maracena 2+ goals

29%

Maracena 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

63%

Maracena (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Maracena away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Maracena defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Maracena attack 0.85 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

46%

level

26%

Maracena scores more

27%

Polideportivo Almería at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Álvaro Cruz

34'

60'

Pablo Checa← J. Randal

60'

Moussa← Dani Garzón

60'

Falin← Soma

60'

Dani← Raúl Fernández

73'

Julen Gonzalez← Miguel Castillo

73'

Álex← Capilla Garzón

75'

Fernando Carralero← Félix

75'

Campanas← Álvaro Cruz

75'

Julen Gonzalez

81'

Nacho Antequera← Antonio Peso

90+2'

Josema← Linares

90'

Campanas

90+6'

Fernando Carralero

Polideportivo

Maracena

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Cruz

▼

Félix

Rosa

Manager: Carlos Hinojo

60'▲Pablo Checa←▼J. Randal

60'▲Moussa←▼Dani Garzón

75'▲Fernando Carralero←▼Félix

75'▲Campanas←▼Álvaro Cruz

90+2'▲Josema←▼Linares

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

ChecaMoussaCarraleroCampanasJosema

Manager: Jesus Sierra

60'▲Falin←▼Soma

60'▲Dani←▼Raúl Fernández

73'▲Julen Gonzalez←▼Miguel Castillo

73'▲Álex←▼Capilla Garzón

81'▲Nacho Antequera←▼Antonio Peso

Maracena substitutes

FalinDaniGonzalezÁlexAntequera