Maracena 0–1 Polideportivo Almería: Result & Stats

Maracena

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Polideportivo Almería

Moussa 3'

1/17/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 12Ciudad Deportiva Maracena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Maracena49%

×Draw25%

Polideportivo Almería26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaracenaExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.07

Maracena

1.57

Polideportivo Almería

1.07

Maracena creates 47% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 63 away

1.28

creates per match

0.84

1.30

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Maracena

1.28

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Maracena

1.30

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maracena+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maracena ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Maracena or draw

74%

Maracena or Polideportivo Almería

75%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

51%

Winning margin

Maracena wins by 2+

25%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Maracena 1+ goals

79%

Maracena 2+ goals

46%

Maracena 3+ goals

21%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

66%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

29%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Maracena (draw refunded)

65%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Maracena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Maracena attack 1.28 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.57

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Maracena defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Maracena scores more

49%

level

25%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

26%

Maracena at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Maracena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Moussa

46'

Javi Gallo← Gueye

62'

Jesús← Álvaro Aranda

65'

Álvaro Cruz← Pedro Ruzzo

70'

Pedro Aceituno← Jordi

82'

David Simón← Sergio Ponte

82'

Marcos Moreno← Dani Garzón

87'

Cristo← Rubén Martínez

Maracena

Polideportivo

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jaime Morente

46'▲Javi Gallo←▼Gueye

70'▲Pedro Aceituno←▼Jordi

87'▲Cristo←▼Rubén Martínez

Maracena substitutes

GalloAceitunoCristo

Manager: Ricardo García

62'▲Jesús←▼Álvaro Aranda

65'▲Álvaro Cruz←▼Pedro Ruzzo

82'▲David Simón←▼Sergio Ponte

82'▲Marcos Moreno←▼Dani Garzón

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

JesúsCruzSimónMoreno

Match Recap: Maracena vs Polideportivo Almería

Polideportivo Almería beat Maracena 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 17, 2021.

Goals: Moussa (3').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Maracena in Maracena.

Maracena vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Maracena vs Polideportivo Almería