Polideportivo Almería 0–1 Mancha Real

Polideportivo Almería

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mancha Real

Padilla 71' (pen)

9/22/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 3Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Polideportivo Almería41%

×Draw29%

Mancha Real30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchMancha Real

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.00

Polideportivo Almería

1.21

Mancha Real

1.00

Polideportivo Almería creates 21% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 79 away

1.26

creates per match

0.73

1.27

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Mancha Real

0.73

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Mancha Real

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Mancha Real →

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

70%

Polideportivo Almería or Mancha Real

71%

Draw or Mancha Real

59%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

18%

Mancha Real wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

70%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

34%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

12%

Mancha Real 1+ goals

63%

Mancha Real 2+ goals

26%

Mancha Real 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

57%

Mancha Real (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

41%

level

29%

Mancha Real scores more

30%

Polideportivo Almería at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

David Moreno← Juanca González

66'

Ramón← Marcal Metcho

66'

Córdoba← Diego Felices

67'

Padilla← Iván Cortés

67'

Álvaro Chumilla← Jorge Lloris

71'

PadillaPenalty

75'

D. Ibarra

77'

Naím← Othman Ouhadi

77'

Juanjo López← Pablo Checa

77'

Antoñito← Daniel Lidueña

88'

Fran Moreno← Pedro Corral

88'

Alejandro Peña← Juanma Espinosa

Polideportivo

Mancha

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Manager: David Cartagena

66'▲Ramón←▼Marcal Metcho

66'▲Córdoba←▼Diego Felices

77'▲Naím←▼Othman Ouhadi

77'▲Juanjo López←▼Pablo Checa

77'▲Antoñito←▼Daniel Lidueña

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

RamónCórdobaNaímLópezAntoñito

Manager: José Aybar

42'▲David Moreno←▼Juanca González

67'▲Padilla←▼Iván Cortés

67'▲Álvaro Chumilla←▼Jorge Lloris

88'▲Fran Moreno←▼Pedro Corral

88'▲Alejandro Peña←▼Juanma Espinosa

Mancha Real substitutes

MorenoPadillaChumillaMorenoPeña