Mancha Real 2–2 Polideportivo Almería

Mancha Real

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Polideportivo Almería

Pedro 85'

Raúl García 48'

Fernando Carralero 52'

Félix 34'

1/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 17Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Mancha Real56%

×Draw24%

Polideportivo Almería20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mancha RealExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.90

Mancha Real

1.68

Polideportivo Almería

0.90

Mancha Real creates 87% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 63 away

1.50

creates per match

0.84

0.95

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Mancha Real

1.50

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Mancha Real

0.95

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mancha Real+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mancha Real ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mancha Real or draw

80%

Mancha Real or Polideportivo Almería

76%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

44%

Winning margin

Mancha Real wins by 2+

31%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Team goals

Mancha Real 1+ goals

81%

Mancha Real 2+ goals

50%

Mancha Real 3+ goals

24%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

59%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

23%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mancha Real (draw refunded)

74%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mancha Real at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mancha Real attack 1.50 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.68

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Mancha Real defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mancha Real scores more

56%

level

24%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

20%

Mancha Real at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mancha Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

Félix

48'

Raúl García

52'

Fernando Carralero

59'

Moussa← J. Randal

65'

Pekes← Malano

68'

Diego Felices← Pablo Checa

68'

Luis Torres← Dani Garzón

68'

Álvaro Cruz← Fernando Carralero

78'

Alberto Martinez← Alejandro Peña

78'

Juanma Espinosa← Óscar Quesada

85'

Pedro

88'

Campanas← A. El Baroudi

89'

Carlos Jiménez← Pedro Corral

Mancha

Polideportivo

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: José Aybar

65'▲Pekes←▼Malano

78'▲Alberto Martinez←▼Alejandro Peña

78'▲Juanma Espinosa←▼Óscar Quesada

89'▲Carlos Jiménez←▼Pedro Corral

Mancha Real substitutes

PekesMartinezEspinosaJiménez

Manager: Carlos Hinojo

59'▲Moussa←▼J. Randal

68'▲Diego Felices←▼Pablo Checa

68'▲Luis Torres←▼Dani Garzón

68'▲Álvaro Cruz←▼Fernando Carralero

88'▲Campanas←▼A. El Baroudi

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

MoussaFelicesTorresCruzCampanas

Match Recap: Mancha Real vs Polideportivo Almería

Mancha Real and Polideportivo Almería drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 14, 2024.

Goals: Félix (34'), Raúl García (48'), Fernando Carralero (52'), Pedro (85').

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud in Mancha Real.

Mancha Real vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mancha Real vs Polideportivo Almería