Polideportivo Almería 1–5 Málaga II: Result & Stats

Polideportivo Almería

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Málaga II

H. El Ouakili 83'

Toni Sánchez 68', 62' (pen)

Chupe 49', 27', 14'

9/8/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 1Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Polideportivo Almería33%

×Draw27%

Málaga II40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchMálaga II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.31

Polideportivo Almería

1.18

Málaga II

1.31

Málaga II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 92 away

1.26

creates per match

1.35

1.27

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Málaga II

1.35

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Málaga II

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Málaga II →

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

60%

Polideportivo Almería or Málaga II

73%

Draw or Málaga II

67%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

14%

Málaga II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

69%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

33%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

12%

Málaga II 1+ goals

73%

Málaga II 2+ goals

38%

Málaga II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

46%

Málaga II (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

33%

level

27%

Málaga II scores more

40%

Málaga II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Chupe

27'

Chupe

46'

Campanas← Juanjo López

46'

Guille Espínola← Pablo Checa

49'

Chupe

52'

M. Abreu← Alejandro Valcarce

55'

Antoñito← Ramón

55'

H. El Ouakili← Dani Mesas

59'

Jorge Gómez← Marcal Metcho

61'

Toni Sánchez← A. Chamorro

61'

Ismael Salguero← Chupe

61'

Juani← Rubén Sánchez

62'

Toni SánchezPenalty

68'

Toni Sánchez

69'

Ángel Mateo← David Márquez

83'

H. El Ouakili

Polideportivo

Málaga

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: David Cartagena

46'▲Campanas←▼Juanjo López

46'▲Guille Espínola←▼Pablo Checa

55'▲Antoñito←▼Ramón

55'▲H. El Ouakili←▼Dani Mesas

59'▲Jorge Gómez←▼Marcal Metcho

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

CampanasEspínolaAntoñitoOuakiliGómez

Manager: Funes

52'▲M. Abreu←▼Alejandro Valcarce

61'▲Toni Sánchez←▼A. Chamorro

61'▲Ismael Salguero←▼Chupe

61'▲Juani←▼Rubén Sánchez

69'▲Ángel Mateo←▼David Márquez

Málaga II substitutes

AbreuSánchezSalgueroJuaniMateo

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Málaga II

Málaga II beat Polideportivo Almería 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 8, 2024.

Goals: Chupe (14', 27', 49'), Toni Sánchez (62' pen, 68'), H. El Ouakili (83').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles in Almería.

Polideportivo Almería vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Málaga II