Málaga II 3–0 Polideportivo Almería: Result & Stats

Málaga II

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Polideportivo Almería

Juanma Hernández 73'

Ismael Salguero 60'

A. Chamorro 22'

1/18/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 18Ciudad Deportiva MCF Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Málaga II65%

×Draw21%

Polideportivo Almería14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Málaga IIExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.76

Málaga II

1.94

Polideportivo Almería

0.76

Málaga II creates 155% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 63 away

2.03

creates per match

0.84

0.69

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Málaga II

2.03

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Málaga II

0.69

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Málaga II+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Málaga II ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Málaga II or draw

86%

Málaga II or Polideportivo Almería

79%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

35%

Winning margin

Málaga II wins by 2+

40%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Team goals

Málaga II 1+ goals

86%

Málaga II 2+ goals

58%

Málaga II 3+ goals

30%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

53%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

18%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Málaga II (draw refunded)

82%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Málaga II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.69 · 91 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Málaga II attack 2.03 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.94

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Málaga II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Málaga II scores more

65%

level

21%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

14%

Málaga II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

A. Chamorro

57'

Rubén Sánchez← Alejandro Valcarce

57'

Rafa Rodríguez← A. Chamorro

60'

Ismael Salguero

63'

Alberto Segura← Othman Ouhadi

63'

H. El Ouakili← Marcal Metcho

65'

Juanma Hernández← M. Abreu

65'

Toni Sánchez← Chupe

73'

Juanma Hernández

78'

Ángel Mateo← Ángel Recio

83'

Dani Ibarra← Linares

89'

Nico← Juanjo López

89'

Luciano← Pablo Checa

Málaga

Polideportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Chamorro

▼

Chupe

▼

Abreu

Manager: Funes

57'▲Rubén Sánchez←▼Alejandro Valcarce

57'▲Rafa Rodríguez←▼A. Chamorro

65'▲Juanma Hernández←▼M. Abreu

65'▲Toni Sánchez←▼Chupe

78'▲Ángel Mateo←▼Ángel Recio

Málaga II substitutes

SánchezRodríguezHernándezSánchezMateo

Manager: Amando Alarcón

63'▲Alberto Segura←▼Othman Ouhadi

63'▲H. El Ouakili←▼Marcal Metcho

83'▲Dani Ibarra←▼Linares

89'▲Nico←▼Juanjo López

89'▲Luciano←▼Pablo Checa

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

SeguraOuakiliIbarraNicoLuciano

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Málaga II 3–0 Polideportivo Almería

Málaga II beat Polideportivo Almería 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 18, 2025.

Goals: A. Chamorro (22'), Ismael Salguero (60'), Juanma Hernández (73').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva MCF Campo 1 in Málaga.

Málaga II vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Málaga II 3–0 Polideportivo Almería