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Polideportivo Almería vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Polideportivo Almería
Polideportivo Almería
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Málaga II
Málaga II
9/8/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 3Estadio de la Juventud Emilio Campra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Polideportivo Almería33%
×Draw27%
Málaga II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polideportivo Almería
1.18
Málaga II
1.31

Málaga II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 92 away

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería
1.26
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería
1.27
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw
60%
Polideportivo Almería or Málaga II
73%
Draw or Málaga II
67%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+
14%
Málaga II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals
69%
Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals
33%
Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals
12%
Málaga II 1+ goals
73%
Málaga II 2+ goals
38%
Málaga II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)
46%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more
33%
level
27%
Málaga II scores more
40%

Málaga II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Polideportivo Almería 1 – 1 Málaga II

Polideportivo Almería and Málaga II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud Emilio Campra in Almería.