Polideportivo Almería 2–2 Loja: Result & Stats

Polideportivo Almería

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Loja

Edu Mendy 55'

Yasser 25'

Dani Salvatierra 79', 63'

11/3/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 12Estadio de la Juventud Emilio Campra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Polideportivo Almería52%

×Draw24%

Loja24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchLoja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.12

Polideportivo Almería

1.75

Loja

1.12

Polideportivo Almería creates 56% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 29 away

1.26

creates per match

0.97

1.27

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Loja

0.97

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Loja

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Loja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Loja →

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

76%

Polideportivo Almería or Loja

76%

Draw or Loja

48%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

29%

Loja wins by 2+

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

83%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

52%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

25%

Loja 1+ goals

67%

Loja 2+ goals

31%

Loja 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

68%

Loja (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Loja away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Loja defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.75

Loja attack 0.97 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

52%

level

24%

Loja scores more

24%

Polideportivo Almería at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Yasser

55'

Edu Mendy

63'

Dani Salvatierra

66'

Juanfran← David Gámiz

69'

Dani Garzón← Michel

79'

Dani Salvatierra

83'

Pedro Ruzzo← Edu Mendy

83'

Kevin Torres← Fran Oller

86'

José Cobos← Fabio

89'

Potocho← Dani

Polideportivo

Loja

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Mendy

Castillej

Manager: Álvaro García

69'▲Dani Garzón←▼Michel

83'▲Pedro Ruzzo←▼Edu Mendy

83'▲Kevin Torres←▼Fran Oller

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

GarzónRuzzoTorres

Manager: Jesús Párraga

66'▲Juanfran←▼David Gámiz

86'▲José Cobos←▼Fabio

89'▲Potocho←▼Dani

Loja substitutes

JuanfranCobosPotocho