Loja 0–1 Polideportivo Almería: Result & Stats

Loja

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Polideportivo Almería

Alberto Segura 68' (pen)

3/21/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 20Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Loja56%

×Draw23%

Polideportivo Almería21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LojaExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.98

Loja

1.77

Polideportivo Almería

0.98

Loja creates 81% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 63 away

1.68

creates per match

0.84

1.11

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Loja

1.68

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Loja

1.11

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loja+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loja ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Loja or draw

79%

Loja or Polideportivo Almería

77%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

44%

Winning margin

Loja wins by 2+

31%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Team goals

Loja 1+ goals

83%

Loja 2+ goals

53%

Loja 3+ goals

26%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

62%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

26%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Loja (draw refunded)

73%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Loja at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Loja attack 1.68 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Loja defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Loja scores more

56%

level

23%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

21%

Loja at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

Antonio Peso← Fabio

67'

Sergio Ponte← Ablaye

68'

Alberto SeguraPenalty

70'

Ángel Chavarría← Miguele

73'

Álvaro Cruz← Kevin Torres

82'

Adrián González← Serafín

86'

Jose Benitez← Álvaro De la Rosa

Loja

Polideportivo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Vicente Ortiz

57'▲Antonio Peso←▼Fabio

70'▲Ángel Chavarría←▼Miguele

82'▲Adrián González←▼Serafín

Loja substitutes

PesoChavarríaGonzález

Manager: Ricardo García

67'▲Sergio Ponte←▼Ablaye

73'▲Álvaro Cruz←▼Kevin Torres

86'▲Jose Benitez←▼Álvaro De la Rosa

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

PonteCruzBenitez

Match Recap: Loja vs Polideportivo Almería

Polideportivo Almería beat Loja 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 21, 2021.

Goals: Alberto Segura (68' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa in Loja.

Loja vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Loja vs Polideportivo Almería