Polideportivo Almería 1–2 Linares Deportivo

Polideportivo Almería

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Linares Deportivo

Yasser 68'

A. Araiza 78'

Joan Grasa 54'

2/23/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 26Estadio de la Juventud Emilio Campra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Polideportivo Almería23%

×Draw24%

Linares Deportivo53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchLinares Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.67

Polideportivo Almería

1.02

Linares Deportivo

1.67

Linares Deportivo creates 64% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 14 away

1.26

creates per match

2.07

1.27

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Linares Deportivo

2.07

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Linares Deportivo

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Linares Deportivo →

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

47%

Polideportivo Almería or Linares Deportivo

76%

Draw or Linares Deportivo

77%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

64%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

27%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

81%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

50%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

31%

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.02

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

23%

level

24%

Linares Deportivo scores more

53%

Linares Deportivo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

Pablo González← Iván Aguilar

54'

Joan Grasa

60'

Miguelito← Rosendo Alarcon

61'

Ablaye← Alonso

66'

Fran Oller← Jaime

67'

Pedro Ruzzo← Marcos Moreno

68'

Yasser

78'

A. Araiza

79'

Dani Espejo← Joan Grasa

Polideportivo

Linares

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Juanfran Miras

61'▲Ablaye←▼Alonso

66'▲Fran Oller←▼Jaime

67'▲Pedro Ruzzo←▼Marcos Moreno

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

AblayeOllerRuzzo

Manager: Juan Arsenal

51'▲Pablo González←▼Iván Aguilar

60'▲Miguelito←▼Rosendo Alarcon

79'▲Dani Espejo←▼Joan Grasa

Linares Deportivo substitutes

GonzálezMiguelitoEspejo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Polideportivo Almería 1–2 Linares Deportivo

Linares Deportivo beat Polideportivo Almería 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 23, 2020.

Goals: Joan Grasa (54'), Yasser (68'), A. Araiza (78').

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud Emilio Campra in Almería.

Polideportivo Almería vs Linares Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Polideportivo Almería 1–2 Linares Deportivo