Linares Deportivo 2–1 Polideportivo Almería

Linares Deportivo

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Polideportivo Almería

Josema 77'

Joan Grasa 39'

Kevin Torres 89'

10/6/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 7Estadio Municipal de Linarejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Linares Deportivo70%

×Draw20%

Polideportivo Almería10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Linares DeportivoExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.58

Linares Deportivo

1.96

Polideportivo Almería

0.58

Linares Deportivo creates 238% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 63 away

2.07

creates per match

0.84

0.33

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Linares Deportivo

2.07

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Linares Deportivo

0.33

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Deportivo ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–08%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–016%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–30%

2–40%

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Linares Deportivo or draw

90%

Linares Deportivo or Polideportivo Almería

80%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

30%

Winning margin

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

44%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Team goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

86%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

58%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

31%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

44%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

12%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

87%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Linares Deportivo at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.96

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Linares Deportivo scores more

70%

level

20%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

10%

Linares Deportivo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

Joan Grasa

46'

Edu Mendy← Marcos Moreno

60'

Óscar Vega← Alonso

61'

A. Araiza← Pablo González

67'

Rosendo Alarcon← Joan Grasa

75'

Fran Carnicer← Rodri

77'

Josema

83'

César Contreras← Pedro Ramírez

89'

Kevin Torres

Linares

Polideportivo

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Grasa

Aguilar

▼

González

Manager: Juan Arsenal

61'▲A. Araiza←▼Pablo González

67'▲Rosendo Alarcon←▼Joan Grasa

75'▲Fran Carnicer←▼Rodri

Linares Deportivo substitutes

AraizaAlarconCarnicer

Manager: Álvaro García

46'▲Edu Mendy←▼Marcos Moreno

60'▲Óscar Vega←▼Alonso

83'▲César Contreras←▼Pedro Ramírez

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

MendyVegaContreras

Match Recap: Linares Deportivo vs Polideportivo Almería

Linares Deportivo beat Polideportivo Almería 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 6, 2019.

Goals: Joan Grasa (39'), Josema (77'), Kevin Torres (89').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Linarejos in Linares.

Linares Deportivo vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Linares Deportivo vs Polideportivo Almería