Polideportivo Almería 1–0 Juventud Torremolinos

Polideportivo Almería

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Juventud Torremolinos

Joselu 44'

2/18/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 22Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Polideportivo Almería28%

×Draw27%

Juventud Torremolinos45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchJuventud Torremolinos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.40

Polideportivo Almería

1.04

Juventud Torremolinos

1.40

Juventud Torremolinos creates 35% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 45 away

1.26

creates per match

1.53

1.27

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Juventud Torremolinos

1.53

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Juventud Torremolinos

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

55%

Polideportivo Almería or Juventud Torremolinos

73%

Draw or Juventud Torremolinos

72%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

10%

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

65%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

28%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals

75%

Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals

41%

Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

38%

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.04

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.53 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

28%

level

27%

Juventud Torremolinos scores more

45%

Juventud Torremolinos at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Joselu

46'

Adri Pérez← Juanjo

62'

Mario García← Ismael Heredia

62'

Francisco Gallego← Álex Camacho

71'

Luis Torres← J. Randal

71'

Dani Mesas← Álvaro Cruz

81'

Pablo Checa← Félix

81'

Álex Medina← Dani Garzón

88'

Josema← Linares

Polideportivo

Juventud

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Carlos Hinojo

71'▲Luis Torres←▼J. Randal

71'▲Dani Mesas←▼Álvaro Cruz

81'▲Pablo Checa←▼Félix

81'▲Álex Medina←▼Dani Garzón

88'▲Josema←▼Linares

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

TorresMesasChecaMedinaJosema

Manager: Antonio Calderón

46'▲Adri Pérez←▼Juanjo

62'▲Mario García←▼Ismael Heredia

62'▲Francisco Gallego←▼Álex Camacho

Juventud Torremolinos substitutes

PérezGarcíaGallego

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Juventud Torremolinos

Polideportivo Almería beat Juventud Torremolinos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 18, 2024.

Goals: Joselu (44').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles in Almería.

Polideportivo Almería vs Juventud Torremolinos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Juventud Torremolinos