Juventud Torremolinos 1–1 Polideportivo Almería

Juventud Torremolinos

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Polideportivo Almería

R. Gómez 87'

Edu Pla 74'

10/8/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 5Campo Municipal El Pozuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos61%

×Draw23%

Polideportivo Almería16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventud TorremolinosExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.76

Juventud Torremolinos

1.75

Polideportivo Almería

0.76

Juventud Torremolinos creates 130% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 63 away

1.64

creates per match

0.84

0.67

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos

1.64

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos

0.67

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw

84%

Juventud Torremolinos or Polideportivo Almería

77%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

39%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+

35%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals

83%

Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals

52%

Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals

25%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

53%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

18%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)

79%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.64 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.75

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more

61%

level

23%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

16%

Juventud Torremolinos at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Adri Pérez← Dani

46'

Jorge Bolívar← Mario García

46'

Francisco Gallego← Marcos Corral

61'

Luis Torres← Diego Felices

61'

A. El Baroudi← Cato Santiago

65'

R. Gómez← Álex Camacho

71'

Álvaro de la Rosa← Campanas

71'

Amate← Linares

74'

Edu Pla

85'

Juanmi Villegas← Pablo Checa

87'

R. Gómez

Juventud

Polideportivo

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Antonio Calderón

46'▲Adri Pérez←▼Dani

46'▲Jorge Bolívar←▼Mario García

46'▲Francisco Gallego←▼Marcos Corral

65'▲R. Gómez←▼Álex Camacho

Juventud Torremolinos substitutes

PérezBolívarGallegoGómez

Manager: Carlos Hinojo

61'▲Luis Torres←▼Diego Felices

61'▲A. El Baroudi←▼Cato Santiago

71'▲Álvaro de la Rosa←▼Campanas

71'▲Amate←▼Linares

85'▲Juanmi Villegas←▼Pablo Checa

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

TorresBaroudiRosaAmateVillegas