Polideportivo Almería 2–0 Estepona: Result & Stats

Polideportivo Almería

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Estepona

Álvaro De la Rosa 78'

Josema 44'

5/30/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 9Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Polideportivo Almería47%

×Draw27%

Estepona26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchEstepona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.96

Polideportivo Almería

1.38

Estepona

0.96

Polideportivo Almería creates 44% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 14 away

1.26

creates per match

0.64

1.27

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Estepona

0.64

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Estepona

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Estepona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Estepona →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

74%

Polideportivo Almería or Estepona

73%

Draw or Estepona

53%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

22%

Estepona wins by 2+

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

75%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

40%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

16%

Estepona 1+ goals

62%

Estepona 2+ goals

25%

Estepona 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

64%

Estepona (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Estepona away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Estepona defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Estepona attack 0.64 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

47%

level

27%

Estepona scores more

26%

Polideportivo Almería at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Raúl Toro← Manuel Morilla

44'

Josema

46'

Alberto Segura← Zakaría

60'

Álvaro Becerra← Jose Luis

60'

Rengel← S. Pishvaie

68'

Pinteño← Antonio Hernández

68'

68'

77'

78'

88'

Marcos Moreno← Kevin Torres

Polideportivo

Estepona

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Ricardo García

46'▲Alberto Segura←▼Zakaría

68'▲Pinteño←▼Antonio Hernández

68'▲Álvaro Cruz←▼Manolo

68'▲Ablaye←▼Sergio Ponte

88'▲Marcos Moreno←▼Kevin Torres

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

SeguraPinteñoCruzAblayeMoreno

Manager: Lucas Cazorla

30'▲Raúl Toro←▼Manuel Morilla

60'▲Álvaro Becerra←▼Jose Luis

60'▲Rengel←▼S. Pishvaie

77'▲Chaves←▼C. Chávez

Estepona substitutes

ToroBecerraRengelChaves

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Estepona

Polideportivo Almería beat Estepona 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 30, 2021.

Goals: Josema (44'), Álvaro De la Rosa (78').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles in Almería.

Polideportivo Almería vs Estepona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Estepona