Estepona 3–2 Polideportivo Almería: Result & Stats

Estepona

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Polideportivo Almería

Jose Luis 83', 34'

Antonio Caballero 74'

Sergio Ponte 68', 25'

4/25/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Estepona44%

×Draw25%

Polideportivo Almería31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsteponaExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.21

Estepona

1.50

Polideportivo Almería

1.21

Estepona creates 24% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 63 away

1.14

creates per match

0.84

1.57

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Estepona

1.14

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Estepona

1.57

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estepona+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estepona ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Estepona or draw

69%

Estepona or Polideportivo Almería

75%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

56%

Winning margin

Estepona wins by 2+

22%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Estepona 1+ goals

78%

Estepona 2+ goals

44%

Estepona 3+ goals

19%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

70%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

34%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Estepona (draw refunded)

59%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Estepona at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Estepona attack 1.14 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Estepona defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Estepona scores more

44%

level

25%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

31%

Estepona at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Estepona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Sergio Ponte

34'

Jose Luis

58'

Álex Ros← Álvaro Becerra

60'

Marcos Moreno← José Carlos

62'

Antonio Hernández← Luis Suanes

64'

Álvaro Queijeiro← Raúl Toro

68'

Sergio Ponte

74'

Antonio Caballero

78'

Álvaro Cruz← Manolo

78'

Jose Benitez← Kevin Torres

78'

Ablaye← Sergio Ponte

83'

Jose Luis

Estepona

Polideportivo

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Lucas Cazorla

58'▲Álex Ros←▼Álvaro Becerra

64'▲Álvaro Queijeiro←▼Raúl Toro

Estepona substitutes

RosQueijeiro

Manager: Ricardo García

60'▲Marcos Moreno←▼José Carlos

62'▲Antonio Hernández←▼Luis Suanes

78'▲Álvaro Cruz←▼Manolo

78'▲Jose Benitez←▼Kevin Torres

78'▲Ablaye←▼Sergio Ponte

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

MorenoHernándezCruzBenitezAblaye

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Estepona 3–2 Polideportivo Almería

Estepona beat Polideportivo Almería 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 25, 2021.

Goals: Sergio Ponte (25', 68'), Jose Luis (34', 83'), Antonio Caballero (74').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez in Estepona.

Estepona vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Estepona 3–2 Polideportivo Almería