Polideportivo Almería 0–2 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Polideportivo Almería

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Miguel Montes 81'

Adri Paz 39' (pen)

4/4/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 22Estadio de la Juventud Emilio Campra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Polideportivo Almería40%

×Draw27%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchCiudad de Torredonjimeno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.21

Polideportivo Almería

1.35

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.21

Polideportivo Almería creates 12% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 110 away

1.26

creates per match

1.16

1.27

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.16

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno →

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

67%

Polideportivo Almería or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

73%

Draw or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

60%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

18%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

74%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

39%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

15%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals

70%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals

34%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

54%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.16 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

40%

level

27%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more

33%

Polideportivo Almería at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

Adri PazPenalty

55'

Sergio Ponte← Kevin Torres

57'

Fran Martos← Adri Paz

70'

Zakaría← Dani Garzón

70'

Miguel Montes← E. Same

80'

Antonio Hernández← Ablaye

80'

José Carlos← Luis Suanes

81'

Miguel Montes

88'

Álvaro Bueno← Javi Bueno

88'

Álvaro Lozano← Mario Martos

Polideportivo

Ciudad

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ricardo García

55'▲Sergio Ponte←▼Kevin Torres

70'▲Zakaría←▼Dani Garzón

80'▲Antonio Hernández←▼Ablaye

80'▲José Carlos←▼Luis Suanes

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

PonteZakaríaHernándezCarlos

Manager: Manuel Chumilla

57'▲Fran Martos←▼Adri Paz

70'▲Miguel Montes←▼E. Same

88'▲Álvaro Bueno←▼Javi Bueno

88'▲Álvaro Lozano←▼Mario Martos

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno substitutes

MartosMontesBuenoLozano

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Polideportivo Almería 0–2 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno beat Polideportivo Almería 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 4, 2021.

Goals: Adri Paz (39' pen), Miguel Montes (81').

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud Emilio Campra in Almería.

Polideportivo Almería vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Polideportivo Almería 0–2 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno