Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1–3 Polideportivo Almería

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Polideportivo Almería

Pedro Peña 18'

Álex Cazorla 79'

Guille Espínola 50'

Peke 21'

4/6/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 29Estadio Matías Prats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno58%

×Draw23%

Polideportivo Almería19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ciudad de TorredonjimenoExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.92

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.81

Polideportivo Almería

0.92

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno creates 97% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 63 away

1.77

creates per match

0.84

1.00

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.77

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.00

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or draw

81%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or Polideportivo Almería

77%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

42%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+

33%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Team goals

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals

84%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals

54%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals

27%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

60%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

23%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)

76%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.77 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.81

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more

58%

level

23%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

19%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ciudad de Torredonjimeno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Pedro Peña

21'

Peke

50'

Guille Espínola

52'

Manu Hita← Sergio Muñoz

52'

Manu Martos← Joya

65'

I. Touré← Peke

73'

Álex Cazorla← Antoñito

75'

Cristian Rentero← Caño

79'

Álex Cazorla

81'

David Estrella← Javi Vertiz

81'

Javi Blanco← Pedro Peña

81'

Óscar Vega← Pablo Checa

Ciudad

Polideportivo

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Peña

Navas

Manager: Alfonso Soto

52'▲Manu Hita←▼Sergio Muñoz

52'▲Manu Martos←▼Joya

75'▲Cristian Rentero←▼Caño

81'▲David Estrella←▼Javi Vertiz

81'▲Javi Blanco←▼Pedro Peña

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno substitutes

HitaMartosRenteroEstrellaBlanco

Manager: Amando Alarcón

65'▲I. Touré←▼Peke

73'▲Álex Cazorla←▼Antoñito

81'▲Óscar Vega←▼Pablo Checa

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

TouréCazorlaVega

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1–3 Polideportivo Almería

Polideportivo Almería beat Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 6, 2025.

Goals: Pedro Peña (18'), Peke (21'), Guille Espínola (50'), Álex Cazorla (79').

The match was played at Estadio Matías Prats in Torredonjimeno.

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1–3 Polideportivo Almería