Polideportivo Almería 1–2 Atlético Porcuna

Polideportivo Almería

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atlético Porcuna

Juanjo López 82'

Izan 66'

Juanjo 36'

3/30/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 28Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Polideportivo Almería45%

×Draw26%

Atlético Porcuna29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Porcuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.13

Polideportivo Almería

1.48

Atlético Porcuna

1.13

Polideportivo Almería creates 31% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 94 away

1.26

creates per match

0.99

1.27

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Atlético Porcuna

0.99

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Atlético Porcuna

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Atlético Porcuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Atlético Porcuna →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

71%

Polideportivo Almería or Atlético Porcuna

74%

Draw or Atlético Porcuna

55%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

22%

Atlético Porcuna wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

77%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

43%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

19%

Atlético Porcuna 1+ goals

68%

Atlético Porcuna 2+ goals

31%

Atlético Porcuna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

61%

Atlético Porcuna (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Atlético Porcuna away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.69 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Atlético Porcuna defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atlético Porcuna attack 0.99 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

45%

level

26%

Atlético Porcuna scores more

29%

Polideportivo Almería at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Juanjo

46'

Álex Cazorla← Fran Requena

46'

Linares← Pablo Abarca

46'

Peke← Campanas

53'

Juanjo López← Óscar Vega

63'

Izan← Dani Garzón

66'

Izan

67'

Guille Espínola← I. Touré

82'

Juanjo López

84'

Fran Fraile← Largo

88'

Mario← Miguel Molina

90+3'

Polideportivo

Atlético

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Amando Alarcón

46'▲Álex Cazorla←▼Fran Requena

46'▲Linares←▼Pablo Abarca

46'▲Peke←▼Campanas

53'▲Juanjo López←▼Óscar Vega

67'▲Guille Espínola←▼I. Touré

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

CazorlaLinaresPekeLópezEspínola

Manager: Antonio Bueno

63'▲Izan←▼Dani Garzón

84'▲Fran Fraile←▼Largo

88'▲Mario←▼Miguel Molina

Atlético Porcuna substitutes

IzanFraileMario