Atlético Porcuna 5–1 Polideportivo Almería

Atlético Porcuna

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Polideportivo Almería

Adri Delgado 71'

Miguel Molina 67'

W. Owusu 47'

Juanse Pegalajar 28'

Álvaro Sierra 12'

Daniel Lidueña 9'

11/17/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 11Estadio Municipal San Benito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Atlético Porcuna50%

×Draw25%

Polideportivo Almería25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético PorcunaExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.04

Atlético Porcuna

1.58

Polideportivo Almería

1.04

Atlético Porcuna creates 52% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 63 away

1.29

creates per match

0.84

1.24

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Atlético Porcuna

1.29

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Atlético Porcuna

1.24

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Porcuna+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Porcuna ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Porcuna or draw

75%

Atlético Porcuna or Polideportivo Almería

75%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

50%

Winning margin

Atlético Porcuna wins by 2+

26%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Porcuna 1+ goals

79%

Atlético Porcuna 2+ goals

47%

Atlético Porcuna 3+ goals

21%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

65%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

28%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Porcuna (draw refunded)

67%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Porcuna at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Porcuna attack 1.29 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.58

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Atlético Porcuna defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atlético Porcuna scores more

50%

level

25%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

25%

Atlético Porcuna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atlético Porcuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Daniel Lidueña

12'

Álvaro Sierra

28'

Juanse Pegalajar

46'

Dani Mesas← H. El Ouakili

46'

Samu← Othman Ouhadi

47'

W. Owusu

65'

Juanjo López← Campanas

67'

Miguel Molina

70'

Paquito← Dani Garzón

70'

Adri Delgado← Miguel Molina

71'

Adri Delgado

76'

Ángel Lara← Álvaro Sierra

78'

Córdoba← Marcal Metcho

78'

Diego Felices← Daniel Lidueña

80'

Fran Fraile← W. Owusu

Atlético

Polideportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Molina

⚽

▼

Owusu

Manager: Antonio Bueno

70'▲Paquito←▼Dani Garzón

70'▲Adri Delgado←▼Miguel Molina

76'▲Ángel Lara←▼Álvaro Sierra

80'▲Fran Fraile←▼W. Owusu

Atlético Porcuna substitutes

PaquitoDelgadoLaraFraile

Manager: David Cartagena

46'▲Dani Mesas←▼H. El Ouakili

46'▲Samu←▼Othman Ouhadi

65'▲Juanjo López←▼Campanas

78'▲Córdoba←▼Marcal Metcho

78'▲Diego Felices←▼Daniel Lidueña

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

MesasSamuLópezCórdobaFelices

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Atlético Porcuna 5–1 Polideportivo Almería

Atlético Porcuna beat Polideportivo Almería 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 17, 2024.

Goals: Daniel Lidueña (9'), Álvaro Sierra (12'), Juanse Pegalajar (28'), W. Owusu (47'), Miguel Molina (67'), Adri Delgado (71').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Benito in Porcuna.

Atlético Porcuna vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Atlético Porcuna 5–1 Polideportivo Almería