Polideportivo Almería 2–0 Atlético Melilla

Polideportivo Almería

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Melilla

Álvaro de la Rosa 82'

Félix 54'

12/22/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 16Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polideportivo Almería76%

×Draw15%

Atlético Melilla10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Melilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

0.87

Polideportivo Almería

2.72

Atlético Melilla

0.87

Polideportivo Almería creates 213% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 17 away

1.26

creates per match

0.47

1.27

allows per match

4.18

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Atlético Melilla

0.47

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Atlético Melilla

4.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Atlético Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Atlético Melilla →

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

90%

Polideportivo Almería or Atlético Melilla

85%

Draw or Atlético Melilla

24%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

55%

Atlético Melilla wins by 2+

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

93%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

75%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

50%

Atlético Melilla 1+ goals

58%

Atlético Melilla 2+ goals

22%

Atlético Melilla 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

89%

Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Atlético Melilla away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Atlético Melilla defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.72

Atlético Melilla attack 0.47 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

76%

level

15%

Atlético Melilla scores more

10%

Polideportivo Almería at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Melik Amar← Yeray

54'

Félix

56'

Musa Salhi← Romero

69'

Diego Felices← Fernando Carralero

69'

Álvaro de la Rosa← Pablo Checa

69'

Othman Ouhadi← Álex Medina

79'

Moussa← J. Randal

82'

Álvaro de la Rosa

85'

Córdoba← Álvaro Cruz

85'

Mohamed Aissaoui← Muhammad Kadurr

85'

M. Mimun← Abdel Lah

Polideportivo

Atlético

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Carlos Hinojo

69'▲Diego Felices←▼Fernando Carralero

69'▲Álvaro de la Rosa←▼Pablo Checa

69'▲Othman Ouhadi←▼Álex Medina

79'▲Moussa←▼J. Randal

85'▲Córdoba←▼Álvaro Cruz

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

FelicesRosaOuhadiMoussaCórdoba

Manager: Berlanga

28'▲Melik Amar←▼Yeray

56'▲Musa Salhi←▼Romero

85'▲Mohamed Aissaoui←▼Muhammad Kadurr

85'▲M. Mimun←▼Abdel Lah

Atlético Melilla substitutes

AmarSalhiAissaouiMimun

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Polideportivo Almería 2–0 Atlético Melilla

Polideportivo Almería beat Atlético Melilla 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 22, 2023.

Goals: Félix (54'), Álvaro de la Rosa (82').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles in Almería.

Polideportivo Almería vs Atlético Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Polideportivo Almería 2–0 Atlético Melilla