Atlético Melilla 2–4 Polideportivo Almería

Atlético Melilla

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Polideportivo Almería

Melik Amar 16'

Y. Chaou 5'

Álvaro de la Rosa 85'

Yassir 83' (OG)

Fernando Carralero 23'

Campanas 8'

5/4/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 33Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Melilla36%

×Draw27%

Polideportivo Almería37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético MelillaExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.27

Atlético Melilla

1.23

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 63 away

0.59

creates per match

0.84

1.71

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Atlético Melilla

0.59

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Atlético Melilla

1.71

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Melilla+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Melilla ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Melilla or draw

63%

Atlético Melilla or Polideportivo Almería

73%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

64%

Winning margin

Atlético Melilla wins by 2+

15%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Atlético Melilla 1+ goals

71%

Atlético Melilla 2+ goals

35%

Atlético Melilla 3+ goals

13%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

72%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

36%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)

49%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Melilla at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Melilla attack 0.59 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.23

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Atlético Melilla defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Melilla scores more

36%

level

27%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

37%

Polideportivo Almería at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

23'

27'

Sufián Mohamed← Soliman Mimun

46'

Álex Medina← Othman Ouhadi

68'

Dani Garzón← A. El Baroudi

68'

Linares← Pablo Checa

74'

Amin← Bilal Hashas

74'

Álvaro Cruz← Fernando Carralero

74'

Dani Mesas← Córdoba

83'

YassirOwn goal

84'

Muhammad Alí← Ayman el Moussaqui

85'

Álvaro de la Rosa

Atlético

Polideportivo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: Jesús Miguel Morente

27'▲Sufián Mohamed←▼Soliman Mimun

74'▲Amin←▼Bilal Hashas

84'▲Muhammad Alí←▼Ayman el Moussaqui

Atlético Melilla substitutes

MohamedAminAlí

Manager: Carlos Hinojo

46'▲Álex Medina←▼Othman Ouhadi

68'▲Dani Garzón←▼A. El Baroudi

68'▲Linares←▼Pablo Checa

74'▲Álvaro Cruz←▼Fernando Carralero

74'▲Dani Mesas←▼Córdoba

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

MedinaGarzónLinaresCruzMesas

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Atlético Melilla 2–4 Polideportivo Almería

Polideportivo Almería beat Atlético Melilla 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 4, 2024.

Goals: Y. Chaou (5'), Campanas (8'), Melik Amar (16'), Fernando Carralero (23'), Yassir (83' o.g.), Álvaro de la Rosa (85').

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.

Atlético Melilla vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Atlético Melilla 2–4 Polideportivo Almería