Polideportivo Almería 3–0 Arenas Armilla

Polideportivo Almería

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Arenas Armilla

Daniel Lidueña 45+3', 35', 24' (pen)

10/13/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 6Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Polideportivo Almería39%

×Draw28%

Arenas Armilla33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchArenas Armilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.10

Polideportivo Almería

1.21

Arenas Armilla

1.10

Polideportivo Almería creates 10% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 68 away

1.26

creates per match

0.94

1.27

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Arenas Armilla

0.94

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Arenas Armilla

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Arenas Armilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Arenas Armilla →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

67%

Polideportivo Almería or Arenas Armilla

72%

Draw or Arenas Armilla

61%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

17%

Arenas Armilla wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

70%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

34%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

12%

Arenas Armilla 1+ goals

67%

Arenas Armilla 2+ goals

30%

Arenas Armilla 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

54%

Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Arenas Armilla away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Arenas Armilla attack 0.94 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

39%

level

28%

Arenas Armilla scores more

33%

Polideportivo Almería at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Daniel LidueñaPenalty

35'

Daniel Lidueña

36'

David Aguilar← Carlos Villa

36'

Dani Lafuente← Carlos Jiménez

37'

Diego Felices← Guille Espínola

45+3'

Daniel Lidueña

46'

Eric Rodríguez← Gudiño

62'

Peli← J. Scigliotti

67'

Antoñito← H. El Ouakili

67'

Pablo Checa← J. Randal

71'

Samu Márquez← Miguel Bolívar

75'

Marcal Metcho← Daniel Lidueña

75'

Dani Mesas← Diego Felices

Polideportivo

Arenas

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

Lidueña

Manager: David Cartagena

37'▲Diego Felices←▼Guille Espínola

67'▲Antoñito←▼H. El Ouakili

67'▲Pablo Checa←▼J. Randal

75'▲Marcal Metcho←▼Daniel Lidueña

75'▲Dani Mesas←▼Diego Felices

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

FelicesAntoñitoChecaMetchoMesas

Manager: Fran Maldonado

36'▲David Aguilar←▼Carlos Villa

36'▲Dani Lafuente←▼Carlos Jiménez

46'▲Eric Rodríguez←▼Gudiño

62'▲Peli←▼J. Scigliotti

71'▲Samu Márquez←▼Miguel Bolívar

Arenas Armilla substitutes

AguilarLafuenteRodríguezPeliMárquez

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Arenas Armilla

Polideportivo Almería beat Arenas Armilla 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 13, 2024.

Goals: Daniel Lidueña (24' pen, 35', 45+3').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles in Almería.

Polideportivo Almería vs Arenas Armilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Arenas Armilla