Arenas Armilla 0–1 Polideportivo Almería

Arenas Armilla

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Polideportivo Almería

Óscar Vega 88'

2/23/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 23Estadio Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Arenas Armilla52%

×Draw25%

Polideportivo Almería23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arenas ArmillaExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.97

Arenas Armilla

1.58

Polideportivo Almería

0.97

Arenas Armilla creates 63% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 63 away

1.29

creates per match

0.84

1.10

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Arenas Armilla

1.29

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Arenas Armilla

1.10

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenas Armilla+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Armilla ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Arenas Armilla or draw

77%

Arenas Armilla or Polideportivo Almería

75%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

48%

Winning margin

Arenas Armilla wins by 2+

27%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Team goals

Arenas Armilla 1+ goals

79%

Arenas Armilla 2+ goals

47%

Arenas Armilla 3+ goals

21%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

62%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

25%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)

69%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arenas Armilla at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Armilla attack 1.29 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.58

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Arenas Armilla scores more

52%

level

25%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

23%

Arenas Armilla at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arenas Armilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

H. El Ouakili← Guille Espínola

57'

Pablo Abarca← Fran Requena

64'

Niki← Paco Cantal

67'

Josema← Dani Ibarra

75'

Juanjo López← Álex Cazorla

75'

Óscar Vega← Campanas

77'

J. Scigliotti← A. Al Azami

77'

Fran Machado← Eric Rodríguez

88'

Blas Vicente← Neskes

88'

Carlos Villa← Álex Cabello

88'

Óscar Vega

Arenas

Polideportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Thierry

64'▲Niki←▼Paco Cantal

77'▲J. Scigliotti←▼A. Al Azami

77'▲Fran Machado←▼Eric Rodríguez

88'▲Blas Vicente←▼Neskes

88'▲Carlos Villa←▼Álex Cabello

Arenas Armilla substitutes

NikiScigliottiMachadoVicenteVilla

Manager: Amando Alarcón

57'▲H. El Ouakili←▼Guille Espínola

57'▲Pablo Abarca←▼Fran Requena

67'▲Josema←▼Dani Ibarra

75'▲Juanjo López←▼Álex Cazorla

75'▲Óscar Vega←▼Campanas

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

OuakiliAbarcaJosemaLópezVega

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Arenas Armilla 0–1 Polideportivo Almería

Polideportivo Almería beat Arenas Armilla 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 23, 2025.

Goals: Óscar Vega (88').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal in Armilla.

Arenas Armilla vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Arenas Armilla 0–1 Polideportivo Almería