Polideportivo Almería 0–2 Alhaurino: Result & Stats

Polideportivo Almería

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Alhaurino

Lupiáñez 54'

Víctor Rueda 4' (pen)

4/11/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 1Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Polideportivo Almería42%

×Draw26%

Alhaurino32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchAlhaurino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.19

Polideportivo Almería

1.40

Alhaurino

1.19

Polideportivo Almería creates 18% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 47 away

1.26

creates per match

1.11

1.27

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Alhaurino

1.11

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Alhaurino

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Alhaurino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Alhaurino →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

68%

Polideportivo Almería or Alhaurino

74%

Draw or Alhaurino

58%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

20%

Alhaurino wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

75%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

41%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

17%

Alhaurino 1+ goals

70%

Alhaurino 2+ goals

33%

Alhaurino 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

57%

Alhaurino (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Alhaurino away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Alhaurino defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Alhaurino attack 1.11 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

42%

level

26%

Alhaurino scores more

32%

Polideportivo Almería at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Víctor RuedaPenalty

52'

Manolo← Antonio Hernández

54'

Lupiáñez

61'

Sergio Ponte← Álvaro Cruz

66'

Amin Guerrero← Manu Sarmiento

81'

Zakaría← Luis Suanes

84'

Pepe del Río← Amin Guerrero

89'

Josemi Rey← Víctor Rueda

89'

Ramírez← Zalea

Polideportivo

Alhaurino

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ricardo García

52'▲Manolo←▼Antonio Hernández

61'▲Sergio Ponte←▼Álvaro Cruz

81'▲Zakaría←▼Luis Suanes

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

ManoloPonteZakaría

Manager: Francis García

66'▲Amin Guerrero←▼Manu Sarmiento

84'▲Pepe del Río←▼Amin Guerrero

89'▲Josemi Rey←▼Víctor Rueda

89'▲Ramírez←▼Zalea

Alhaurino substitutes

GuerreroRíoReyRamírez

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Alhaurino

Alhaurino beat Polideportivo Almería 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 11, 2021.

Goals: Víctor Rueda (4' pen), Lupiáñez (54').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles in Almería.

Polideportivo Almería vs Alhaurino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Alhaurino