Alhaurino 1–0 Polideportivo Almería: Result & Stats

Alhaurino

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Polideportivo Almería

Diego García 85'

5/9/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Municipal Miguel Fijones

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Alhaurino50%

×Draw25%

Polideportivo Almería25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlhaurinoExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.07

Alhaurino

1.60

Polideportivo Almería

1.07

Alhaurino creates 50% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 63 away

1.34

creates per match

0.84

1.30

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Alhaurino

1.34

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Alhaurino

1.30

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alhaurino+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alhaurino ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Alhaurino or draw

75%

Alhaurino or Polideportivo Almería

75%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

50%

Winning margin

Alhaurino wins by 2+

26%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Alhaurino 1+ goals

80%

Alhaurino 2+ goals

47%

Alhaurino 3+ goals

22%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

66%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

29%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Alhaurino (draw refunded)

66%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alhaurino at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alhaurino attack 1.34 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.60

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Alhaurino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alhaurino scores more

50%

level

25%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

25%

Alhaurino at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Alhaurino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

David Simón← Alberto Segura

55'

Amin Guerrero← Javi Aijón

55'

Sergio Ponte← Marcos Moreno

64'

Pepe del Río← Fran Castillo

75'

Ulises← Manu Sarmiento

81'

José Carlos← Álvaro De la Rosa

81'

Othman Ouhadi← Antonio Hernández

85'

Diego García

Alhaurino

Polideportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Francis García

55'▲Amin Guerrero←▼Javi Aijón

64'▲Pepe del Río←▼Fran Castillo

75'▲Ulises←▼Manu Sarmiento

Alhaurino substitutes

GuerreroRíoUlises

Manager: Ricardo García

37'▲David Simón←▼Alberto Segura

55'▲Sergio Ponte←▼Marcos Moreno

81'▲José Carlos←▼Álvaro De la Rosa

81'▲Othman Ouhadi←▼Antonio Hernández

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

SimónPonteCarlosOuhadi

Match Recap: Alhaurino vs Polideportivo Almería

Alhaurino beat Polideportivo Almería 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 9, 2021.

Goals: Diego García (85').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguel Fijones in Alhaurín el Grande.

Alhaurino vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alhaurino vs Polideportivo Almería