Police 0–2 GOR Mahia: Result & Stats

Police

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

GOR Mahia

11/9/2025

FKF Premier League · Round 8Nyayo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Police36%

×Draw29%

GOR Mahia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PoliceExpected goals in this matchGOR Mahia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.07

Police

1.11

GOR Mahia

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 144 away

1.42

creates per match

1.49

0.65

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Police

1.42

GOR Mahia

1.49

allows per match

Police

0.65

GOR Mahia

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Police+0.00on par

GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

GOR Mahia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Police or draw

66%

Police or GOR Mahia

71%

Draw or GOR Mahia

64%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+

15%

GOR Mahia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals

67%

Police 2+ goals

30%

Police 3+ goals

10%

GOR Mahia 1+ goals

66%

GOR Mahia 2+ goals

29%

GOR Mahia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)

51%

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.65 · 71 matches

GOR Mahia away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 1.42 + GOR Mahia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.11

GOR Mahia attack 1.49 + Police defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Police scores more

36%

level

29%

GOR Mahia scores more

34%

Police at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff