GOR Mahia 1–1 Police: Result & Stats

GOR Mahia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Police

6/22/2025

FKF Premier League · Round 34Ulinzi Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

GOR Mahia41%

×Draw30%

Police29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOR MahiaExpected goals in this matchPolice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.89

GOR Mahia

1.13

Police

0.89

GOR Mahia creates 27% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 75 away

1.58

creates per match

1.07

0.70

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

GOR Mahia

1.58

Police

1.07

allows per match

GOR Mahia

0.70

Police

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Police+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Police →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw

71%

GOR Mahia or Police

70%

Draw or Police

59%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+

17%

Police wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals

68%

GOR Mahia 2+ goals

31%

GOR Mahia 3+ goals

11%

Police 1+ goals

59%

Police 2+ goals

22%

Police 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)

59%

Police (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.70 · 147 matches

Police away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.67 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.58 + Police defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.13

Police attack 1.07 + GOR Mahia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

GOR Mahia scores more

41%

level

30%

Police scores more

29%

GOR Mahia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff