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Police National vs PAC Academy — Division One League 2025

Police National
Police National
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
PAC Academy
PAC Academy
3/21/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Police National45%
×Draw31%
PAC Academy24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police National
1.17
PAC Academy
0.77

Police National creates 52% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Police National
1.13
PAC Academy
0.73

allows per match

Police National
0.80
PAC Academy
1.20

finishing

Police National+0.00on par
PAC Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police National ↓

PAC Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Police National or draw
76%
Police National or PAC Academy
69%
Draw or PAC Academy
55%

Winning margin

Police National wins by 2+
20%
PAC Academy wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Police National 1+ goals
69%
Police National 2+ goals
33%
Police National 3+ goals
11%
PAC Academy 1+ goals
54%
PAC Academy 2+ goals
18%
PAC Academy 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Police National (draw refunded)
65%
PAC Academy (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police National at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

PAC Academy away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police National attack 1.13 + PAC Academy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

PAC Academy attack 0.73 + Police National defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Police National scores more
45%
level
31%
PAC Academy scores more
24%

Police National at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Police National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Police National vs PAC Academy

Police National and PAC Academy drew 1-1 in Division One League on March 21, 2026.