PAC Academy 1–0 Police National: Result & Stats

PAC Academy

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Police National

11/23/2025

Division One League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

PAC Academy55%

×Draw29%

Police National16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAC AcademyExpected goals in this matchPolice National

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.57

PAC Academy

1.33

Police National

0.57

PAC Academy creates 133% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.47

creates per match

0.47

0.67

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

PAC Academy

1.47

Police National

0.47

allows per match

PAC Academy

0.67

Police National

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAC Academy+0.00on par

Police National+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAC Academy ↓

Police National →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

PAC Academy or draw

84%

PAC Academy or Police National

71%

Draw or Police National

45%

Winning margin

PAC Academy wins by 2+

27%

Police National wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

PAC Academy 1+ goals

74%

PAC Academy 2+ goals

38%

PAC Academy 3+ goals

15%

Police National 1+ goals

43%

Police National 2+ goals

11%

Police National 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

PAC Academy (draw refunded)

78%

Police National (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAC Academy at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Police National away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAC Academy attack 1.47 + Police National defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Police National attack 0.47 + PAC Academy defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

PAC Academy scores more

55%

level

29%

Police National scores more

16%

PAC Academy at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "PAC Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff