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Police National vs Ebusua Dwarfs — Division One League 2025

Police National
Police National
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
12/14/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Police National38%
×Draw32%
Ebusua Dwarfs29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police National
1.00
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.83

Police National creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Police National
1.13
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.87

allows per match

Police National
0.80
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.87

finishing

Police National+0.00on par
Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police National ↓

Ebusua Dwarfs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Police National or draw
71%
Police National or Ebusua Dwarfs
68%
Draw or Ebusua Dwarfs
62%

Winning margin

Police National wins by 2+
15%
Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Police National 1+ goals
63%
Police National 2+ goals
26%
Police National 3+ goals
8%
Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
56%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
20%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Police National (draw refunded)
57%
Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police National at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Ebusua Dwarfs away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police National attack 1.13 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 0.87 + Police National defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Police National scores more
38%
level
32%
Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
29%

Police National at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Police National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Police National 0–1 Ebusua Dwarfs

Ebusua Dwarfs beat Police National 1-0 in Division One League on December 14, 2025.