Ebusua Dwarfs 1–0 Police National: Result & Stats

Ebusua Dwarfs

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Police National

4/12/2026

Division One League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs58%

×Draw27%

Police National15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ebusua DwarfsExpected goals in this matchPolice National

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.57

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.44

Police National

0.57

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 153% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.67

creates per match

0.47

0.67

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.67

Police National

0.47

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs

0.67

Police National

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Police National+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

Police National →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw

85%

Ebusua Dwarfs or Police National

73%

Draw or Police National

42%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+

30%

Police National wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals

76%

Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals

42%

Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals

18%

Police National 1+ goals

43%

Police National 2+ goals

11%

Police National 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)

80%

Police National (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Police National away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.67 + Police National defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Police National attack 0.47 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more

58%

level

27%

Police National scores more

15%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff