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Police National vs Ebony FC — Division One League 2025

Police National
Police National
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ebony FC
Ebony FC
9/29/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Police National46%
×Draw28%
Ebony FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police National
1.33
Ebony FC
0.94

Police National creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Police National
1.13
Ebony FC
1.07

allows per match

Police National
0.80
Ebony FC
1.53

finishing

Police National+0.00on par
Ebony FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police National ↓

Ebony FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Police National or draw
74%
Police National or Ebony FC
72%
Draw or Ebony FC
54%

Winning margin

Police National wins by 2+
21%
Ebony FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Police National 1+ goals
74%
Police National 2+ goals
38%
Police National 3+ goals
15%
Ebony FC 1+ goals
61%
Ebony FC 2+ goals
24%
Ebony FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Police National (draw refunded)
63%
Ebony FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police National at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Ebony FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police National attack 1.13 + Ebony FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ebony FC attack 1.07 + Police National defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Police National scores more
46%
level
28%
Ebony FC scores more
26%

Police National at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Police National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Police National 0–1 Ebony FC

Ebony FC beat Police National 1-0 in Division One League on September 29, 2025.