Ebony FC 0–0 Police National: Result & Stats

Ebony FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Police National

1/17/2026

Division One League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ebony FC45%

×Draw38%

Police National17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ebony FCExpected goals in this matchPolice National

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

0.43

Ebony FC

0.90

Police National

0.43

Ebony FC creates 109% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

0.60

creates per match

0.47

0.40

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Ebony FC

0.60

Police National

0.47

allows per match

Ebony FC

0.40

Police National

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ebony FC+0.00on par

Police National+0.00on par

Total goals

Under85
Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No79
Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebony FC ↓

Police National →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–026%

0–111%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–024%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (26%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

74%26%1.5

38%62%2.5

15%85%3.5

5%95%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Ebony FC or draw

83%

Ebony FC or Police National

62%

Draw or Police National

55%

Winning margin

Ebony FC wins by 2+

17%

Police National wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ebony FC 1+ goals

59%

Ebony FC 2+ goals

23%

Ebony FC 3+ goals

6%

Police National 1+ goals

35%

Police National 2+ goals

7%

Police National 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Ebony FC (draw refunded)

73%

Police National (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

11%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebony FC at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Police National away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebony FC attack 0.60 + Police National defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.90

Police National attack 0.47 + Ebony FC defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ebony FC scores more

45%

level

38%

Police National scores more

17%

Ebony FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ebony FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff