Polet Ljubić 2–2 Borac Cacak: Result & Stats

Polet Ljubić

FT

2 – 2

Borac Cacak

6/1/2024

Srpska Liga - West · West - 30Stadion FK Polet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Polet Ljubić32%

×Draw25%

Borac Cacak42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polet LjubićExpected goals in this matchBorac Cacak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.51

Polet Ljubić

1.29

Borac Cacak

1.51

Borac Cacak creates 17% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 54 away

1.60

creates per match

1.78

1.24

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Polet Ljubić

1.60

Borac Cacak

1.78

allows per match

Polet Ljubić

1.24

Borac Cacak

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polet Ljubić+0.00on par

Borac Cacak+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polet Ljubić ↓

Borac Cacak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Polet Ljubić or draw

58%

Polet Ljubić or Borac Cacak

75%

Draw or Borac Cacak

68%

Winning margin

Polet Ljubić wins by 2+

14%

Borac Cacak wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Polet Ljubić 1+ goals

72%

Polet Ljubić 2+ goals

37%

Polet Ljubić 3+ goals

14%

Borac Cacak 1+ goals

78%

Borac Cacak 2+ goals

44%

Borac Cacak 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Polet Ljubić (draw refunded)

43%

Borac Cacak (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polet Ljubić at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

Borac Cacak away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polet Ljubić attack 1.60 + Borac Cacak defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.29

Borac Cacak attack 1.78 + Polet Ljubić defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Polet Ljubić scores more

32%

level

25%

Borac Cacak scores more

42%

Borac Cacak at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Borac Cacak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff