Borac Cacak 6–1 Polet Ljubić: Result & Stats

Borac Cacak

FT

6 – 1

Polet Ljubić

11/25/2023

Srpska Liga - West · West - 15Stadion Borca kraj Morave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Borac Cacak65%

×Draw19%

Polet Ljubić16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac CacakExpected goals in this matchPolet Ljubić

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.00

Borac Cacak

2.21

Polet Ljubić

1.00

Borac Cacak creates 121% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 45 away

2.49

creates per match

1.40

0.60

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Borac Cacak

2.49

Polet Ljubić

1.40

allows per match

Borac Cacak

0.60

Polet Ljubić

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Cacak+0.00on par

Polet Ljubić+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Cacak ↓

Polet Ljubić →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Borac Cacak or draw

84%

Borac Cacak or Polet Ljubić

81%

Draw or Polet Ljubić

35%

Winning margin

Borac Cacak wins by 2+

41%

Polet Ljubić wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Borac Cacak 1+ goals

89%

Borac Cacak 2+ goals

65%

Borac Cacak 3+ goals

38%

Polet Ljubić 1+ goals

63%

Polet Ljubić 2+ goals

26%

Polet Ljubić 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Borac Cacak (draw refunded)

80%

Polet Ljubić (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Cacak at home — creates 2.49, concedes 0.60 · 55 matches

Polet Ljubić away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.93 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Cacak attack 2.49 + Polet Ljubić defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.21

Polet Ljubić attack 1.40 + Borac Cacak defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Borac Cacak scores more

65%

level

19%

Polet Ljubić scores more

16%

Borac Cacak at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Borac Cacak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff