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Polet Dorćol vs Jedinstvo Su — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Polet Dorćol
Polet Dorćol
FT
0 – 1
Jedinstvo Su
Jedinstvo Su
3/9/2024Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 17Stadion FK GSP Polet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Polet Dorćol43%
×Draw26%
Jedinstvo Su32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polet Dorćol
1.48
Jedinstvo Su
1.24

Polet Dorćol creates 19% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 100 away

creates per match

Polet Dorćol
1.52
Jedinstvo Su
0.99

allows per match

Polet Dorćol
1.49
Jedinstvo Su
1.43

finishing

Polet Dorćol+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Su+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polet Dorćol ↓

Jedinstvo Su →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Polet Dorćol or draw
68%
Polet Dorćol or Jedinstvo Su
74%
Draw or Jedinstvo Su
57%

Winning margin

Polet Dorćol wins by 2+
21%
Jedinstvo Su wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Polet Dorćol 1+ goals
77%
Polet Dorćol 2+ goals
43%
Polet Dorćol 3+ goals
19%
Jedinstvo Su 1+ goals
71%
Jedinstvo Su 2+ goals
35%
Jedinstvo Su 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Polet Dorćol (draw refunded)
57%
Jedinstvo Su (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polet Dorćol at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.49 · 69 matches

Jedinstvo Su away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polet Dorćol attack 1.52 + Jedinstvo Su defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Jedinstvo Su attack 0.99 + Polet Dorćol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Polet Dorćol scores more
43%
level
26%
Jedinstvo Su scores more
32%

Polet Dorćol at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Polet Dorćol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polet Dorćol vs Jedinstvo Su

Jedinstvo Su beat Polet Dorćol 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK GSP Polet in Beograd.