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Jedinstvo Su vs Polet Dorćol — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Jedinstvo Su
Jedinstvo Su
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Polet Dorćol
Polet Dorćol
10/19/2025Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Jedinstvo Su51%
×Draw27%
Polet Dorćol23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Su
1.47
Polet Dorćol
0.88

Jedinstvo Su creates 67% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 68 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Su
1.31
Polet Dorćol
0.75

allows per match

Jedinstvo Su
1.00
Polet Dorćol
1.62

finishing

Jedinstvo Su+0.00on par
Polet Dorćol+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Su ↓

Polet Dorćol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Su or draw
77%
Jedinstvo Su or Polet Dorćol
73%
Draw or Polet Dorćol
49%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Su wins by 2+
26%
Polet Dorćol wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Su 1+ goals
77%
Jedinstvo Su 2+ goals
43%
Jedinstvo Su 3+ goals
18%
Polet Dorćol 1+ goals
59%
Polet Dorćol 2+ goals
22%
Polet Dorćol 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Su (draw refunded)
69%
Polet Dorćol (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Su at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

Polet Dorćol away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Su attack 1.31 + Polet Dorćol defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Polet Dorćol attack 0.75 + Jedinstvo Su defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jedinstvo Su scores more
51%
level
27%
Polet Dorćol scores more
23%

Jedinstvo Su at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jedinstvo Su will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Jedinstvo Su 1–0 Polet Dorćol

Jedinstvo Su beat Polet Dorćol 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on October 19, 2025.