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Polet Dorćol vs Crvena Zvezda MML — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Polet Dorćol
Polet Dorćol
FT
3 – 4
Crvena Zvezda MML
Crvena Zvezda MML
5/22/2021Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 36Stadion FK GSP Polet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Polet Dorćol52%
×Draw24%
Crvena Zvezda MML25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polet Dorćol
1.76
Crvena Zvezda MML
1.15

Polet Dorćol creates 53% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 27 away

creates per match

Polet Dorćol
1.52
Crvena Zvezda MML
0.81

allows per match

Polet Dorćol
1.49
Crvena Zvezda MML
2.00

finishing

Polet Dorćol+0.00on par
Crvena Zvezda MML+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polet Dorćol ↓

Crvena Zvezda MML →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Polet Dorćol or draw
75%
Polet Dorćol or Crvena Zvezda MML
76%
Draw or Crvena Zvezda MML
48%

Winning margin

Polet Dorćol wins by 2+
28%
Crvena Zvezda MML wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Polet Dorćol 1+ goals
83%
Polet Dorćol 2+ goals
52%
Polet Dorćol 3+ goals
26%
Crvena Zvezda MML 1+ goals
68%
Crvena Zvezda MML 2+ goals
32%
Crvena Zvezda MML 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Polet Dorćol (draw refunded)
67%
Crvena Zvezda MML (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polet Dorćol at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.49 · 69 matches

Crvena Zvezda MML away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polet Dorćol attack 1.52 + Crvena Zvezda MML defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.76

Crvena Zvezda MML attack 0.81 + Polet Dorćol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Polet Dorćol scores more
52%
level
24%
Crvena Zvezda MML scores more
25%

Polet Dorćol at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Polet Dorćol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polet Dorćol vs Crvena Zvezda MML

Crvena Zvezda MML beat Polet Dorćol 4-3 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK GSP Polet in Beograd.