Crvena Zvezda MML 1–0 Polet Dorćol: Result & Stats

Crvena Zvezda MML

FT

1 – 0

Polet Dorćol

11/15/2020

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 17Stadion Mali Mokri Lug

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Crvena Zvezda MML49%

×Draw26%

Polet Dorćol25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crvena Zvezda MMLExpected goals in this matchPolet Dorćol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.96

Crvena Zvezda MML

1.46

Polet Dorćol

0.96

Crvena Zvezda MML creates 52% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 68 away

1.29

creates per match

0.75

1.18

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Crvena Zvezda MML

1.29

Polet Dorćol

0.75

allows per match

Crvena Zvezda MML

1.18

Polet Dorćol

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crvena Zvezda MML+0.00on par

Polet Dorćol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crvena Zvezda MML ↓

Polet Dorćol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Crvena Zvezda MML or draw

75%

Crvena Zvezda MML or Polet Dorćol

74%

Draw or Polet Dorćol

51%

Winning margin

Crvena Zvezda MML wins by 2+

24%

Polet Dorćol wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Crvena Zvezda MML 1+ goals

77%

Crvena Zvezda MML 2+ goals

43%

Crvena Zvezda MML 3+ goals

18%

Polet Dorćol 1+ goals

62%

Polet Dorćol 2+ goals

25%

Polet Dorćol 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Crvena Zvezda MML (draw refunded)

66%

Polet Dorćol (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crvena Zvezda MML at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Polet Dorćol away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crvena Zvezda MML attack 1.29 + Polet Dorćol defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.46

Polet Dorćol attack 0.75 + Crvena Zvezda MML defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Crvena Zvezda MML scores more

49%

level

26%

Polet Dorćol scores more

25%

Crvena Zvezda MML at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Crvena Zvezda MML will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff