Polet Dorćol 2–0 BSK Batajnica: Result & Stats

Polet Dorćol

FT

2 – 0

BSK Batajnica

11/7/2020

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 16Stadion FK GSP Polet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Polet Dorćol61%

×Draw21%

BSK Batajnica18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polet DorćolExpected goals in this matchBSK Batajnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.01

Polet Dorćol

2.05

BSK Batajnica

1.01

Polet Dorćol creates 103% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 19 away

1.52

creates per match

0.53

1.49

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Polet Dorćol

1.52

BSK Batajnica

0.53

allows per match

Polet Dorćol

1.49

BSK Batajnica

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polet Dorćol+0.00on par

BSK Batajnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polet Dorćol ↓

BSK Batajnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Polet Dorćol or draw

82%

Polet Dorćol or BSK Batajnica

79%

Draw or BSK Batajnica

39%

Winning margin

Polet Dorćol wins by 2+

37%

BSK Batajnica wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Polet Dorćol 1+ goals

87%

Polet Dorćol 2+ goals

61%

Polet Dorćol 3+ goals

33%

BSK Batajnica 1+ goals

64%

BSK Batajnica 2+ goals

27%

BSK Batajnica 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Polet Dorćol (draw refunded)

77%

BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polet Dorćol at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.49 · 69 matches

BSK Batajnica away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polet Dorćol attack 1.52 + BSK Batajnica defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.05

BSK Batajnica attack 0.53 + Polet Dorćol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Polet Dorćol scores more

61%

level

21%

BSK Batajnica scores more

18%

Polet Dorćol at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Polet Dorćol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff