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BSK Batajnica vs Polet Dorćol — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

BSK Batajnica
BSK Batajnica
FT
1 – 2
Polet Dorćol
Polet Dorćol
5/19/2021Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 35Sportski Centar BSK Batajnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

BSK Batajnica35%
×Draw30%
Polet Dorćol36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSK Batajnica
1.04
Polet Dorćol
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 68 away

creates per match

BSK Batajnica
0.47
Polet Dorćol
0.75

allows per match

BSK Batajnica
1.37
Polet Dorćol
1.62

finishing

BSK Batajnica+0.00on par
Polet Dorćol+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSK Batajnica ↓

Polet Dorćol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

BSK Batajnica or draw
64%
BSK Batajnica or Polet Dorćol
70%
Draw or Polet Dorćol
65%

Winning margin

BSK Batajnica wins by 2+
13%
Polet Dorćol wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

BSK Batajnica 1+ goals
65%
BSK Batajnica 2+ goals
28%
BSK Batajnica 3+ goals
9%
Polet Dorćol 1+ goals
65%
Polet Dorćol 2+ goals
29%
Polet Dorćol 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)
49%
Polet Dorćol (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSK Batajnica at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Polet Dorćol away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSK Batajnica attack 0.47 + Polet Dorćol defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.04

Polet Dorćol attack 0.75 + BSK Batajnica defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

BSK Batajnica scores more
35%
level
30%
Polet Dorćol scores more
36%

Polet Dorćol at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Polet Dorćol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BSK Batajnica vs Polet Dorćol

Polet Dorćol beat BSK Batajnica 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Sportski Centar BSK Batajnica in Batajnica.