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Polet Dorćol vs Brodarac — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Polet Dorćol
Polet Dorćol
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Brodarac
Brodarac
3/1/2025Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 14Stadion FK GSP Polet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Polet Dorćol40%
×Draw25%
Brodarac35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polet Dorćol
1.46
Brodarac
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 98 away

creates per match

Polet Dorćol
1.52
Brodarac
1.22

allows per match

Polet Dorćol
1.49
Brodarac
1.41

finishing

Polet Dorćol+0.00on par
Brodarac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polet Dorćol ↓

Brodarac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Polet Dorćol or draw
65%
Polet Dorćol or Brodarac
75%
Draw or Brodarac
60%

Winning margin

Polet Dorćol wins by 2+
19%
Brodarac wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Polet Dorćol 1+ goals
77%
Polet Dorćol 2+ goals
43%
Polet Dorćol 3+ goals
18%
Brodarac 1+ goals
74%
Brodarac 2+ goals
39%
Brodarac 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Polet Dorćol (draw refunded)
53%
Brodarac (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polet Dorćol at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.49 · 69 matches

Brodarac away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.41 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polet Dorćol attack 1.52 + Brodarac defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Brodarac attack 1.22 + Polet Dorćol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Polet Dorćol scores more
40%
level
25%
Brodarac scores more
35%

Polet Dorćol at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Polet Dorćol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polet Dorćol vs Brodarac

Polet Dorćol beat Brodarac 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FK GSP Polet in Beograd.