Brodarac 0–0 Polet Dorćol: Result & Stats

Brodarac

FT

0 – 0

Polet Dorćol

3/16/2024

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 18FK Brodarac Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Brodarac56%

×Draw24%

Polet Dorćol19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrodaracExpected goals in this matchPolet Dorćol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.88

Brodarac

1.69

Polet Dorćol

0.88

Brodarac creates 92% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 68 away

1.75

creates per match

0.75

1.01

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Brodarac

1.75

Polet Dorćol

0.75

allows per match

Brodarac

1.01

Polet Dorćol

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brodarac+0.00on par

Polet Dorćol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brodarac ↓

Polet Dorćol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Brodarac or draw

81%

Brodarac or Polet Dorćol

76%

Draw or Polet Dorćol

44%

Winning margin

Brodarac wins by 2+

31%

Polet Dorćol wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Brodarac 1+ goals

82%

Brodarac 2+ goals

50%

Brodarac 3+ goals

24%

Polet Dorćol 1+ goals

59%

Polet Dorćol 2+ goals

22%

Polet Dorćol 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Brodarac (draw refunded)

74%

Polet Dorćol (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brodarac at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.01 · 99 matches

Polet Dorćol away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brodarac attack 1.75 + Polet Dorćol defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.69

Polet Dorćol attack 0.75 + Brodarac defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Brodarac scores more

56%

level

24%

Polet Dorćol scores more

19%

Brodarac at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Brodarac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff