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Polessya vs Oleksandria — Premier League 2019

Polessya
Polessya
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Oleksandria
Oleksandria
3/9/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Tsentralnyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Polessya56%
×Draw23%
Oleksandria20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polessya
1.76
Oleksandria
0.96

Polessya creates 83% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Polessya
2.01
Oleksandria
0.90

allows per match

Polessya
1.02
Oleksandria
1.51

finishing

Polessya-0.46scores less
Oleksandria-0.27scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polessya ↓

Oleksandria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Polessya or draw
80%
Polessya or Oleksandria
77%
Draw or Oleksandria
44%

Winning margin

Polessya wins by 2+
31%
Oleksandria wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Polessya 1+ goals
83%
Polessya 2+ goals
52%
Polessya 3+ goals
26%
Oleksandria 1+ goals
62%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
25%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Polessya (draw refunded)
73%
Oleksandria (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polessya at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.02 · 11 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polessya attack 2.01 + Oleksandria defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.76

Oleksandria attack 0.90 + Polessya defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Polessya scores more
56%
level
23%
Oleksandria scores more
20%

Polessya at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Polessya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Polessya 1–2 Oleksandria

Oleksandria beat Polessya 2-1 in Premier League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Zhytomyr.